Dear Clients of TOJ Private Wealth Management,

On April 7, 2025, I penned an open letter to you about the distinction between market behavior and investor behavior on the heels of the “Tariff Tantrum”. A day later, on April 8, 2025, the S&P 500 bottomed for the year and proceeded to rise 37% by the end of 2025. It was a stark reminder that the US Stock Market always climbs a “Wall of Worry” and that investor behavior is more important than market behavior.

While the headlines always change, the history remains the same. As Mark Twain said, “history doesn’t always repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme a lot.”  Today, the tariff tantrum headlines have been replaced with “Iran War and Oil Prices”. Like last year, and every year, how we react to the headlines is more important than the headlines themselves. Last year I highlighted a series of events over a 25-year period that caused the market to correct. Each correction was followed by a recovery. This year, I will highlight some new empirical data around market behavior.

Credit to Jessica Rabe at DataTrek Research who has become one of my favorites to follow on social media. She shared the following data set last week.

Since 2010, when the S&P 500 declines by -9.6% or more within 50 trading days, a two standard deviation event, 50 trading days forward the market is up 92% of the time an average of +9.6%. The S&P 500 officially reached a -9.6% decline on March 30, 2026.

As I penned last April, corrections are unpleasant and always seem to feel more severe and unprecedented while we go through them, but it is important to remember that investor behavior is the most important variable during these times, and not market behavior. 

While we cannot control the short-term price movements of the equity markets, there are two things we can control, our investment process and our behavior. History tells us that investors who focus on these controllables are rewarded. 

And so, like last year, we should take a moment to ask ourselves the following questions:

• Do we have a plan?
• Does our plan suggest we have a high probability of success navigating 20-30 years of retirement successfully?
• Are we focused on the long-term trajectory instead of the short-term noise?
• Do our advisors have a proven investment process that allows us to participate when things are good and protect when things are not so good?
• Do our investments match our long-term needs and goals?

While corrections are uncomfortable, they are temporary and often lay the groundwork for future gains. Remaining patient and focused on the long-term has proven to be an effective approach to dealing with disruptions.

If you would like to discuss your portfolio or revisit your financial plan, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to provide clarity, guidance and wisdom in a sea of negative headlines.

Thank you for your trust. Together, we are confident that we will successfully navigate this period as we have successfully done many times before.

Sincerely,

Philip “Flip” O’Toole

TOJ Private Wealth Management



The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) noted and may or may not represent the views of Lincoln Investment. These views are as of 03/31/2026 and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. The material presented is provided for informational purposes only. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. As with all investments, past performance is no guarantee of future results. No person or system can predict the market. All investments are subject to risk, including the risk of principal loss.